- There is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest year on record.
- There is an 86% chance that at least one will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.
- 2024 was likely the first calendar year to be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.
Global temperatures are set to continue at near-record high levels between 2025 and 2029, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
In its Global Annual to Decedal Climate Update report, co-produced by the UK’s Met Office, the WMO said there is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years (2025-2029) will beat 2024 as the warmest on record, and an even higher chance that at least one of those years will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average, at 86%.
Long-term warming averaged over several decades remains below 1.5°C, but the forecast predicts a 70% chance that the 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be above 1.5°C. This is up from 47% in the 2024 report for the 2024-2028 period, and up from 32% in the prior report for the 2023-2027 period.
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The WMO has currently estimated the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900.
Although a 1.5°C doesn’t sound like a drastic change in temperature, the results from even a fractional change can result in more devastating heatwaves, extreme rainfall and flooding, widespread drought, melting of icecaps and rising sea levels.
Arctic warming continues to outpace the global average. Over the next five winters, measured from November to March, warming is predicted to be over three and a half times the global average. Using a thirty year baseline period of 1991 – 2020, it will be 2.4% above the average temperature.
Large concentrations of sea ice are also at risk, with further reductions forecast in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk during March 2025-2029
In places such as the Sahel in Africa, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, precipitation patterns between May and September 2025 – 2029 relative to the 1991 – 2020 baseline will be wetter than average, with drier conditions for the same season over the Amazon.
Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of WMO, said there are “no signs of respite over the coming years” and that this will mean a “growing negative impact on our economies, daily lives and our planet.
“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt.”
In the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change, the 1.5°C and 2.0°C level refers to long-term levels of warming from global temperatures over a typical 20 year period. Temperature levels can be expected to temporarily exceed these levels more and more frequently as the global temperature approaches this new level.
Under the treaty, world leaders have agreed to try and cap the long-term global average surface temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels with a goal of limiting the increase to 1.5°C. But scientists have offered repeated warnings that a 1.5°C increase is too much, risking severe climate change.
WMO also released a State of the Global Climate 2024 report in March. It confirmed that 2024 was likely the first calendar year to rise above the 1.5°C 1850-1900 average, making it the warmest year in WMO’s 175 years of observational records.
